Private equity buy-out speculation for gaming companies creating uncertainty for investors
CIBC World Markets' new valuation model helps investors identify where to place their bets NEW YORK, July 2 /CNW/ - CIBC (CM: TSX; NYSE) - Hovering private equity speculation in recent months is making it difficult to peg the value of gaming stocks in the near term and leading to tough calls and significant risks for investors, according to a top U.S. gaming and lodging analyst. A new valuation model created by CIBC World Markets' Gaming and Lodging Analyst David Katz is helping investors make sense of the market and make more confident decisions about where they should place their bets in response to this uncertainty in the marketplace. "Determining how much speculation over a private equity buyout is adding to stock prices and how likely it is the buyout will take place is a challenging but critical issue for investors to address," says Mr. Katz. "The fact is private equity speculation has driven all prices higher these days. Whether they will stay high, grow higher or fall as a result of a potential transaction is the gamble for investors. We're trying to make the investor a smarter player." Traditionally, fundamental analysis has been the strongest indicator as to whether or not a particular stock was viewed as a buy or sell for investors. But the game has changed recently, notes Mr. Katz. In a recent research report he states that recent private equity transactions in the casino space in the past 18 months are driving stock prices to a greater degree than operating results and other fundamental analyses. "Although our fundamental analysis matters, it remains only a part of the story in this environment. The other part involves the likelihood that the company could or would entertain a private market take-out offer," adds Mr. Katz. As a result, CIBC World Markets has taken a new approach to valuing gaming stocks, which results in new probability weighted price targets, based partly on fundamentals and partly on the likelihood of a take-out. "Calculating a take-out valuation and take-out probability for each stock, in our view, results in a more reasonable and realistic approach to how the market is pricing in the likelihood of a take-out," says Mr. Katz. "In most cases, the premium of our take-out valuation to our fundamental target is in the 25%-35% range. That range enables investors to make informed decisions about where there is hidden value and where there isn't, which ultimately leads to better and more confident investment decisions," says Mr. Katz. M&A activity and private equity premiums are topics that should be top of mind among investors at the CIBC World Markets Gaming and Lodging Conference in Boston July 12. The event, featuring over 20 leading companies in the gaming and lodging space, provides a valuable mid-year opportunity for investors to assess these sectors and key investment issues. More information including a conference agenda can be found at: http://conferences.cibcwm.com/consumer07/ . An audio web cast of conference will be available: (http://conferences.cibcwm.com/consumer07/) (enter code: boston2007). CIBC World Markets is the wholesale and corporate banking arm of CIBC, providing a range of integrated credit and capital markets products, investment banking, and merchant banking to clients in key financial markets in North America and around the world. We provide innovative capital solutions and advisory expertise across a wide range of industries as well as top-ranked research for our corporate, government and institutional clients. The Consumer Growth Conference is organized by CIBC World Markets Institutional Equities.
For further information:
For further information: Media contact: David Katz, Executive Director, Gaming & Lodging Equity Research, CIBC World Markets Corp., at (212) 667-8161; or Tom Wallis, Communications & Public Affairs, CIBC, (416) 980-4048