Canadian dollar will trade at biggest premium since 1960

    TORONTO, Oct. 15 /CNW/ - CIBC (CM: TSX; NYSE) - The Canadian economy will
outperform the U.S. economy in 2008, despite the loonie reaching a nearly a
half-century high of $1.05 against the greenback, finds CIBC World Markets
latest economic forecast.
    "The loonie's flight is far from over," says Jeff Rubin, Chief Economist
and Chief Strategist at CIBC World Markets. "By the end of next year, you'll
get as much as a nickel back when you trade your loonies for greenbacks, the
biggest premium since 1960."
    The forecast finds that across a wide spectrum of assets, the tables have
suddenly turned between the American and Canadian economies. Canadian real GDP
growth is outpacing the U.S.; American housing prices continue to fall on
mounting foreclosures while Canadian housing prices continue to rise due to a
surging economy; and the resource-based TSX is set to outperform the S&P 500
for the fourth straight year.
    Mr. Rubin notes that in the past, weakness in the American economy would
spill over the border in a hurry, particularly when a par Canadian dollar
exchange rate left exporters fully exposed. But with the developing world, not
the U.S., now driving global resource demand, the umbilical cord that has
always connected the Canadian economy to the much larger American market is
being severed. That's already becoming apparent with Canadian real GDP growth
poised to surpass the U.S. in a year when the Canadian dollar appreciated from
85 cents to parity.
    "Canadians are getting richer compared to their American neighbours,
after having fallen so far behind during the IT-driven economy of the 1990s"
says Mr. Rubin. "At the heart of this reversal of fortune is the huge shift in
the global terms of trade over the last decade, which has seen economic value-
added migrate from information technology back to resource rents under the
ground.
    "Nowhere is that shift more evident than when comparing soaring crude oil
prices against stagnant or plunging technology prices. It takes only a third
as many barrels of oil to buy a basic computer as it did at the start of the
decade, when Silicon Valley drove the world economy."
    The CIBC World Markets economic forecast finds that rising resource rents
are continuing to swell corporate earnings, personal income and government tax
revenue in Canada. It notes that with consumer spending, business investment
and government spending all well financed, the domestic economy will be firing
on all cylinders.
    The story in the U.S. economy is much different. Tumbling construction,
business caution on inventories, and a consumer sector hit by credit concerns
threaten to take GDP growth to near zero in the fourth quarter with not much
better in the first quarter of 2008.
    "A much stronger domestic economy north of the border will in turn
translate into divergent monetary policies in the two countries with the
Federal Reserve Board following through with another 50 basis points of easing
while the Bank of Canada remains on the sidelines," adds Mr. Rubin. "With
interest rate spreads turning against the greenback, and commodity prices
buoyant, the Canadian dollar should climb to a five per cent premium against
the U.S. dollar by the end of 2008."
    The rising loonie and U.S. economic weakness is hurting Canada's
manufacturing sector, but this part of the Canadian economy is becoming
increasingly marginalized. The sector is approaching its lowest share of GDP
in the post-war period. Both the auto and lumber sectors are feeling the full
brunt of a U.S. economic slowdown, but the losses in manufacturing are being
readily offset in today's economy.
    The bank notes that the recent loss of almost 300,000 manufacturing jobs
has been more than off-set by job creation in other sectors which has produced
a three-decade low national unemployment rate. In fact, once measurement
differences are accounted for, Canada's jobless rate will fall as low as the
U.S. rate next year for the first time since 1982.
    In the past five years, no industry has hired more workers or grown
production faster than construction. In addition to heightened residential
activity, Canada has witnessed a private and public sector investment boom.
The former aims to capitalize on global growth opportunities, with the latter
made possible by surging government revenues. Government stimulus is apparent
in the labour market, with the public sector share of employment at a decade
high.
    The report finds that healthy budget surpluses indicate further
government-related hiring may be ahead, although it notes that investments in
social programs need to be balanced against other priorities. It also
indicates that given years of progress on addressing the federal debt and with
the fiscal imbalance largely addressed, the pace of federal debt reduction can
now be scaled back and the time is ripe for meaningful tax relief.
    The complete CIBC World Markets report is available at:
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/foct07.pdf.

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